摘要
本文对我国70个大中城市2005年7月至2016年5月的新建和二手住宅的价格指数进行极大似然估计,结果表明:所有样本城市的新建和二手住宅价格都具有长期记忆性;记忆程度呈现一二三线城市层层递减的特征;新建住宅价格比二手住宅价格具有更强的长期记忆性。结合当下房价波动趋势和住宅库存量等因素,住宅需求者购房可用于在一线城市投资、二三线城市自用,住宅供给者总体投资环境不佳,政府管理部门的调控力度可在一二三线城市间递减。
This paper estimates the new and second-hand housing price indexes of 70 cities in China from July 2005 to May2016 using the maximum likelihood estimation. It turns out that the new and second-hand housing price indexes of all the sample cities have long memory, the degree of memory shows the characteristics of diminishing in layers of 123 tier cities, the new housing prices have a stronger long memory than second-hand housing prices. Combining with the current trend of price fluctuations, residential inventory levels and other factors, the demanders buy houses in Tier 1 cities for investment and in lower-tier cities for themselves, the suppliers are confronted with a severe development situation and the degree of regulation from government administrative departments should decreases in layers of 123 tier cities.
出处
《投资研究》
2016年第10期26-40,共15页
Review of Investment Studies
基金
中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目(项目编号:16XNH052)
关键词
住宅价格
长期记忆性
极大似然估计
城市间差异
housing price
long memory
the maximum likelihood estimation
inter-urban difference
