摘要
以上海二手房房价指数为实证样本,应用R/S分析法研究上海房价波动的长记忆特性,计算得到Hurst指数及关联尺度函数并进而确定了V统计量曲线的转折点。结果表明,上海二手房房价指数每隔2.5年即出现明显转折,证明了上海二手房房价指数存在显著的长记忆特性,未来房价受到现在房价很大的影响,上海二手房房价的可预测性很强,对于帮助工程投资风险的预测有实际的意义。
This article studies the characteristic of long-term memory during the fluctuation of Shanghai housing price by R/S analysis method based on the sample of second-hand housing price index.Then,it determines the turning point of V statistical curve,computes the Hurst index and association scale functions.According to the research result,Shanghai second-hand housing price index would be turning obviously in every 2.5 years which proved the price index possesses the property of long-term memory significantly and the future housing price would heavily affect by its current price.Thus,the Shanghai second hand housing price is of great predictability,and at the same time will help to predict the danger in engineering investment.
出处
《地下空间与工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第A02期1642-1645,共4页
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering
