摘要
本文基于1994-2014年省际面板数据模型,利用交通基础设施投资规模并在考虑滞后一期的基础上,分别对全国及东中西部各类交通投资与能源消耗之间的关系进行研究,结果表明:(1)全国层面,铁路、公路、航空、水运投资均与能源消耗之间关系呈倒"U"型形态,但需警惕航空、水运投资与能耗之间"N"型形态;(2)区域层面,交通投资与能源消耗存在倒"U"型形态(西部水运投资整体不显著);铁路、公路投资拐点与经济发展关联性大,经济越发达地区投资拐点值小,反之则大,航空、水运投资拐点与经济发展关联性小;(3)进一步分析发现,铁路、公路投资对降低能源消耗作用最大,高铁和高速公路网建设有利于区域间产业转移和经济结构调整,促进低能耗产业发展(如旅游等)。通过全国和区域数据验证,继续加大交通基础设施投资有利于降低能源消耗,有助于"三去一降一补"目标的实现和"一带一路"战略的实施。
Based on provincial panel data modeling from 1994 to 2014 we take advantage of transportation infrastructure investment scale and lagging data to explore the relationships between traffic investments of all kinds and energy consumption in China. The research shows that at a national level,the relationship between investment in railway,highway,airway or waterway and energy consumption is a U- shaped trend. The relationship between investment in airway or waterway and energy consumption is a N- shaped trend. At a regional level,the relationship is an inverted U- shaped trend while it is insignificant in consideration of waterway investment in western China. The inflection point of railway or highway investment is closely related to economic development,while the inflection point of airway or waterway investment is hardly related to economic development. In developed areas,the inflection point is low and high in developing areas. Further analysis found that railway and highway investment helps reduce energy consumption the most. The construction of high- speed rail and expressway is beneficial to interregional industrial transfer and structure adjustment and promotes low- energy industry development such as tourism. In accordance with national and regional data validation,we should increase transportation infrastructure investment to decrease energy consumption,achieving the goals of supply- side structural reform in 2016 such as cutting overcapacity,destocking,deleveraging,reducing costs,identifying growth areas and advancing the The Belt and Road Initiative.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第12期2283-2294,共12页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271135)
关键词
交通基础设施
投资
能源消耗
库兹涅茨曲线
中国
transportation infrastructure
investment
energy consumption
Kuznets Curve
China
