摘要
风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。
Storm surges are a phenomenon of abnormal water-level rises under the influence of strong atmospheric turbulence in coastal areas and are effected by many factors, such as sea-level rise. China has seen frequent storm surges, especially in the southeastern coastal areas where their frequency is high and disaster losses are serious. This article systematically summarized the progress and main problems of storm surge research in China with regard to the hazard, vulnerability, and risk regionalization. Based on the characteristics and risk assessment of storm surges, the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies were further investigated. Especially in the context of climate change, future trend, recurrence periods, and high risk areas of storm surges would be greatly affected by sea-level rise. Thereby, a comprehensive risk assessment incorporating factors such as sea-level rise is urgently needed. Moreover, the changes in natural conditions and socioeconomic development in the coastal areas under global climate change should be taken into account to improve risk assessment with the combination of short-term and long-term views. In order to adapt to the risk of storm surge disasters under climate change, China has continuously improved the capacity building for emergency preparedness, structural defense, and policies and regulations to improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第11期1411-1419,共9页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAK05B04)
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013034)~~
关键词
气候变化
风暴潮灾害
灾情
风险
适应
中国
climate change
storm surge
disaster impact
risk
adaptation
China
