摘要
隧道塌方风险分析是隧道设计和安全施工的重要环节。首先选取隧道塌方风险评价指标并建立评价指标风险分级标准,在深入分析新奥法隧道施工风险影响因素的基础上,根据隧道塌方风险影响因素具有模糊不确定性和层次性的特点建立隧道塌方风险的模糊综合评判模型。其次,通过研究各因素评价指标取值方法及隶属度函数选取原则,建立评价指标隶属度确定方法。然后针对不同专家工程经验及认知的不同,引入群组决策的思想,基于信息熵理论建立评价指标的权重计算方法。考虑到影响因素对隧道塌方风险影响具有非线性特征,引入非线性模糊运算方法,从而最终建立基于熵权的隧道塌方风险非线性模糊评判方法。最后通过工程实例分析表明了方法的可行性与合理性。
The present paper is aimed at bringing about a renovated nonlinear fuzzy assessment method for forecasting the tunnel collapse risk based on the entropy weight. The supposed method has been founded on the basis of analyzing the fuzzy and hierarchical features of the impacts of the tunnel collapse risk factors,basically including the five primary evaluation indexes and the fifteen secondary evaluation indexes. And,then,we have set up the risk ranking standard for evaluation indexes of the tunnel collapse risks and the commonly accepted risk-assessment criteria based on the five grades of the risk commonly used. Collapse risk analysis of tunnel is an important link for tunnel design and safety construction. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the risk factors for tunnel collapse,we have also proposed the evaluation indexes of tunnel collapse risk. Through the study of the value-taking method of evaluation indexes and the chosen principle of membership degree function,we have presented the method for determining the membership degree by using the construction principle of triangle membership function with the membership degree functions of the five risk grades of tunnel collapse being well defined. In order to take the expert experience and the collective wisdom into full account,we have introduced the group decision-making principle to enhance the reliability and precision of the evaluation results in the paper. What is more,while considering the limited sphere of the experts＇ recognition and disagreements on the comprehensive evaluation result reliability,we have also formulated a model of weight value determination on the basis of the information and data entropy theory. Furthermore,according to the effects of the nonlinearity characteristic features of the collapse risk factors on the tunnel collapse risks,we have also introduced the nonlinear fuzzy matrix jointly operating method to reflect the predominant influence on the evaluation results on the condition when the evaluation indexes are poor so as to make
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期41-45,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
关键词
安全工程
隧道工程
塌方
风险分析
模糊综合评判
非线性
信息熵
safety engineering
tunnel ergineering
collapse
risk analysis
fuzzy synthetic judgment
nonlinear
information entropy
