摘要
基于VEC模型,运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲函数响应函数以及方差分解等方法,对1993-2014年福建省房地产价格、银行信贷与经济增长之间的动态关系进行研究分析。结果表明:1房价、银行信贷和经济增长之间存在着动态协整关系,银行信贷与房价、经济增长之间都存在单向因果关系,房价与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。2经济增长往往需要一段较长的时间才能推动房价的上涨,房价对银行信贷存在长期的抑制作用,房价对经济增长的影响小于银行信贷对经济增长的影响。
Based on VEC model,some methods including unit root test,co-integration test,granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the dynamic relationship among real estate price,bank credit and economic growth of Fujian Province from 1993 to 2014.The results show that dynamic co-integration relationship exists among real estate price,bank credit and economic growth,that the one-way causality exists between banking credit and real estate price as well as economic growth,and that a two-way causality between real estate price and economic growth.Besides,it often needs a long time for economic growth to push the real estate price up,and there exists longterm inhibition effect of real estate price on banking credit,in addition,the influence of real estate price on economic growth is lesser than banking credit.
出处
《科技和产业》
2016年第6期122-127,共6页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31370624
41301203)
福建省教育厅项目(JK2013016
JA13118)
