摘要
经济"新常态"对经济增速与结构优化提出了新要求,也为缓解能源压力与改善生态环境提供了契机。本文采用生态足迹模型核算了1991—2013年中国化石能源生态价值补偿,结合"新常态"经济特征,预测了化石能源生态足迹的变化轨迹并对代际间化石能源生态价值补偿进行了责任划分。结果显示,在放缓经济增速和约束能源下,中国化石能源生态价值补偿存在增速降低甚至总额下行的可能,预期在2032年左右能够达到峰值,与中国承诺CO2峰值的时间接近。靠前代际负更多责任的分配方式更符合公平与效率的要求,不仅可以减轻后代人的补偿压力,同时也可以兼顾到当代人的经济发展与能源技术进步。
The ＂New Normal＂ economy puts forward new requirements to economic growth and structural optimization, and also provides an opportunity for easing energy pressure and improving ecological environment. Using the ecological footprint model, this paper accounts the ecological value compensation of fossil energy in China from 1991 to 2013, and combined with the characteristics of ＂New Normal＂ economy, predicts the trajectory of the fossil energy ecological footprint and distributes the intergenerational responsibility of ecological value compensation of fossil energy. The research result shows that under the slowdown in economic growth and the constraints in energy structure, it is possible that the growth and total amount of ecological value compensation of fossil energy would be reduced, and the total amount reach the peak near 2032, which is close to peak time of carbon dioxide committed by China. The distribution mode of former generation taking more responsibility accords more with the requirements of fairness and efficiency, which can not only ease the pressure on the compensation of future generations, but also take account of contemporary economic development and the progress of energy technology.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期60-68,共9页
Statistical Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“化石能源定价与税费改革及其宏观影响-基于生态价值与代际补偿视角”(13YJC790123)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“能源价格冲击对宏观经济的影响机制研究-基于开放经济下多部门动态随机一般均衡模型分析”(71303199)
福建省自然科学基金面上项目“福建省推动生态文明建设的驱动机制研究”(2014J01269)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“要素配置效率与市场化改革研究”(20720151026)的资助
关键词
“新常态”
生态价值
代际补偿
＂New Normal＂ Economy
Ecological Value
Intergenerational Compensation
