摘要
为了深入认识安徽省农业碳排放与农业经济增长之间的相互关系,并为区域低碳农业发展政策措施的制定提供理论依据,采用Tapio与LMDI模型对安徽省农业碳排放的脱钩效应及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:1998—2014年安徽省农业碳排放总量呈波动上升趋势,具体表现为"快速增长-持续下降-缓慢上升"三阶段特征;研究期内农业碳排放与农业经济增长间的脱钩关系以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主,说明安徽省农业低碳减排工作取得一定成效;效率因素、劳动力因素和结构因素均对农业碳排放增长具有抑制作用,它们在研究期内的累计减排贡献量分别为896.51万t,341.62万t和253.67万t,而农业经济发展则是碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,其引发的累计碳排放增量高达1552.29万t。
Through the models of Tapio and LMDI,this paper studies the decoupling effect of agricultural carbon emission in Anhui Province and the factors that influence the emission in order to gain a deeper understanding of the correlation between agricultural carbon emission and economic development,and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of policies and measures concerning the development of regional low carbon agriculture.The results show that agricultural carbon emission in Anhui from1998 to 2014underwent a wavelike rise,that is,increasing rapidly in the first phase,declining continuously in the second and rising slowly in the third;the decoupling relationships between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic growth are mainly the weak and strong decoupling types,which indicates that low-carbon policy and emission reduction work in the province have achieved a certain amount of success;the factors of producing efficiency,labor force and industrial structure have an inhibiting effect on the increase of emissions,which were reduced respectively by 896.51×104,341.62×104 and 253.67×104 million tons during the three phases of the period in the province;and agricultural economic growth is a major driving force that caused the increase of emissions,which increased by 1552.29×104 million tons during the three phases of the period.
出处
《安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2016年第2期29-35,共7页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural University:SOC.SCI.
基金
宿州区域发展协同创新中心开放课题(2014SZXTKF15:<宿州市城乡基础设施配置现状及发展途径研究>)
宿州学院安徽省煤矿勘探工程技术研究中心开放课题(2013YKF05:<煤矿区大气降尘的重金属污染特征及其环境风险>)
关键词
安徽省
农业碳排放
脱钩效应
因素分解
Anhui Province
agricultural carbon emission
decoupling effect
factors decomposition
