摘要
目的探讨江阴市流行性腮腺炎(简称流腮)的最佳预警界值,为预防和控制流腮提供科学的依据。方法基于2008-2012年江阴市流行性腮腺炎的月发病数,建立预警模型,通过综合比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数及受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC),优选该地区流腮的最佳预警界值。结果兼顾灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值等指标和ROC曲线的表现,江阴市流行性腮腺炎的预警界值宜定为P90。结论控制图法非常适合区县单位开展使用,具有较好的预警功效。
Objective To select the early alert threshold for mumps in Jiangyin via applying the control graph method. Methods Monthly reported cases of mumps from 2008 to 2012 in Jiangyin were used to establish the early alert model. Results Finally,P90 was the premium alert threshold for mumps in Jiangyin by comparing sensitivity,specificity,positive value,Youden＇ s inde xand receiver operating characteristic（ ROC） curve. Conclusion The control graph method was an efficient way for the early detection highly fits district and county.
出处
《医学动物防制》
2016年第4期443-445,共3页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
