摘要
为研究社会群众面对化工园区事故时的风险感知变化情况,基于系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,以风险感知为核心,风险感知-风险观念-风险反应-风险沟通-风险感知回路为主线,形成3条有效回路,构建化工园区突发事件社会群众风险感知的因果图和系统图;研究各因素间的关系,运用Vensim软件进行动态模拟,将模拟图形进行归总处理,研究各状态变量间的变化情况。结果表明,影响社会群众风险感知的各状态变量的变化情况各不相同,且相互影响各自的演化趋势。了解这一点有助于为与化工园区事故有关的社会群众安全管理工作提供依据。
In order to study the change of risk perception when the lay public face emergency in chemical industry park,a model of risk perception was built based on theory and methods of SD. Taking risk perception as core and ＂ risk perception-risk perspective-risk response-risk communication-risk perception＂ as mainline,three effective feedback loops were formed. Casual loop diagram and flow diagram of the lay public＇s perception of risk in chemical industry park were constructed. Relationships among various factors were analyzed. Vensim software was applied to make dynamic simulation,then dealt with all simulation graphics and studied situation changes among state variables. The results show that the state variable affecting the perception change differently from each other and their evolution trends are influenced by each other. Knowing this is helpful in providing a sound basis for social public safety management work related to accidents in chemical industrial park.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期169-174,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71001051)
江苏省自然科学基金资助(BK2012824)
