摘要
2014年,我国全社会用电量、发电量增速较2013年呈下降趋势,发电设备年利用小时数较2013年大幅下降,为1978年以来最低值。我国经济增速趋缓,经济发展进入新常态。从中长期来看,我国电力需求将放缓,电力过剩时代即将到来。核电作为非化石能源中的主力能源,未来战略地位更加重要。核电走出去面临窗口期,应抓住"一路一带"战略契机,推动核电走出去。本文首先采用LEAP模型,考虑人口增长速度、城市化率、收入水平、经济发展速度以及经济结构等众多因素影响,预测了2015—2050年的电力需求量、电源结构、CO_2排放量。进而分析了影响新能源电力发展的原因和国内核电厂址现状,为我国核电加快走出去步伐提供数据支撑和政策参考。
China＇s total electricity consumption and power generation growth declined in 2014 compared with 2013. Annual utilization hours of power generation equipment dropped significantly compared to 2013, which is the lowest value since 1978. China＇s economic growth slowed down, and economic development has entered the new normal. China＇s electricity demand will slow down in the medium and long term. Surplus electricity era is coming. As the main energy of non-fossil energy, the strategic position of nuclear is more important in the future. Nuclear going abroad is facing the developmental window of opportunity. We should seize One Belt and One Road strategic opportunity to promote nuclear power to go abroad. Regarding the population growth, urbanization, income level, economic growth and economic structure, this paper first simulates and analyzes the electricity demand, the structure of the generation of electric power structure, CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050 based on LEAP model. It further analyzes the causes and impact of the new energy power development and domestic nuclear power plant status. Supported data and recommendations are proposed for nuclear going abroad.
出处
《中国能源》
2016年第1期25-31,共7页
Energy of China
基金
国家核电员工自主创新项目(SNP-KJ-CX-2014-2)
关键词
核电
电力需求
走出去
Nuclear Power
Electricity Demand
Going Abroad
