摘要
为促进我国消防安全形势最终实现根本好转,深入分析消防安全的现状,具体研究消防安全与经济社会发展的关系,采用时间序列预测法定量预测我国火灾事故发展趋势,并提出针对性的管理对策。研究表明,消防安全与经济社会发展密切相关,火灾事故死亡人数的变化趋势与GDP、第三产业增加值增速和第二产业增加值比重有较大的相关性。预测2020年我国火灾10万人口发生率为7.51,百万人口死亡率为0.410,相比于2012年分别下降15.6%和31.7%。建议从完善消防法律法规和体制机制,加强生产经营单位消防安全自我管理和政府监管,强化消防队伍建设和提高全民消防安全意识等方面,切实加强消防安全管理工作。
To continually promote steady improvement and ultimately fundamental improvement fire prevention situation in China,the relationship between fire prevention situation and economic social development was deeply studied. Fire prevention situation development trend was quantitatively predicted using time series forecasting method. Specific management measures were proposed in the end. Research shows that fire prevention situation is correlated closely with economic social development,that there is a closer correlation between fire deaths and trends of GDP and the added value of tertiary industry growth as well as the percentage of the added value of secondary industry. It was predicted that the one hundred thousand population fire occurrence rate would be 7. 51 and the one million population fire mortality rate would be0. 410 in the year of 2020,decreasing by 15. 6% and 31. 7% respectively compared to those in the year of2012. It was recommended that to promote work safety of fire control,countermeasures should be taken such as perfecting fire prevention laws and regulations,system and mechanism enhancing enterprises＇ selfmanagement and government supervision,fostering capability building of professional fire prevention team,and increasing national safety awareness.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第8期152-156,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
消防安全
经济社会
发展阶段
定量预测
对策措施
fire prevention
economic society
development stage
quantitative prediction
countermeasure
