摘要
目的探讨趋势季节模型在手足口病(hand-foot-mouth disease,HFMD)月发病率预测中的适用性。方法基于临沂市2008—2013年HFMD月发病率资料,运用SPSS20.0季节分解,建立趋势季节模型,采用2014年发病数据对模型预测效果进行验证,最后对2015年的月发病情况进行预测。结果 2014年HFMD各月发病率预测值依次为0.536/10万、0.297/10万、1.284/10万、4.875/10万、6.276/10万、5.043/10万、2.403/10万、1.030/10万、0.467/10万、0.585/10万、0.538/10万、0.385/10万,与实际发病率基本吻合。2015年的HFMD月发病率预测值分别为0.376/10万、0.230/10万、1.015/10万、3.873/10万、5.046/10万、4.185/10万、2.148/10万、0.865/10万、0.452/10万、0.456/10万、0.396/10万、0.292/10万。结论趋势季节模型适用于HFMD发病预测,但预测精度有待改善。
Objective To explore the feasibility of trend season model for forecasting hand- foot- mouth disease（HFMD） monthly incidence.Methods The data of HFMD incidence was analyzed from 2008 to 2013 in Linyi city by seasonal decomposition with SPSS20.0,forecasting effective of the trend season model by incidence data in 2014 was established and proved,monthly incidence of 2015 was forecasted at last.Results The forecasted monthly incidences of HFMD in 2014 were followed by 0.536/105,0.297/105,1.284/105,4.875/105,6.276/105,5.043/105,2.403/105,1.030/105,0.467/105,0.585/105,0.538/105,0.385/105,and coincided well with the true values.The forecasted monthly incidences of HFMD in 2015 were 0.376/105,0.230/105,1.015/105,3.873/105,5.046/105,4.185/105,2.148/105,0.865/105,0.452/105,0.456/105,0.396/105,0.292/105,respectively.Conclusion Trend season model was suitable for forecasting of HFMD monthly incidence,but the precision of predictive values was still need to be improved.
出处
《社区医学杂志》
2015年第17期13-15,共3页
Journal Of Community Medicine
关键词
趋势季节模型
手足口病
预测
Trend season model
Hand-foot-mouth disease
Forecasting
