摘要
目的通过分析2005—2017年咸阳市流行性腮腺的疫情概况,进一步掌握咸阳市流行性腮腺炎的流行趋势,及时建立次年的预测模型,为下一步预防和控制流行性腮腺炎提供依据和控制措施。方法收集2005—2017年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中咸阳市的流行性腮腺炎报告病例个案资料,采用均数、率、构成比等指标分析流行性腮腺炎的发病规律。结果2005—2017年咸阳市共报告流行性腮腺炎病例15017例,年均发病率为23.11/10万;平均发病年龄(11.44±8.70)岁,男女性别比1.81∶1,病例以儿童(6~10岁)为主;发病有较明显的季节性,主要集中于4—7月;以学生为主,占63.44%。2005—2017年咸阳市流行性腮腺炎的月发病数的最佳预测系统模型为LogWintersMethod-Addictive模型。结论2018年咸阳市流行性腮腺炎的发病较往年不会有太大波动,疫情趋于稳定;应继续加大防控力度,做好腮腺炎疫苗的接种工作及主动预防工作,以降低咸阳市流行性腮腺炎的发病率。
[Objective]Through analyzing the epidemiological features of mumps in Xianyang City from 2005-2017,to further understand the epidemic trend of Mumps,establish a prediction model in the next year,and provide the basis and control measures for prevention and control of mumps.[Methods]The data of reported cases of mumps in Xianyang City from 2005-2017 were collected from Chinese disease prevention and control information system,and the epidemic characteristics of mumps was analyzed by mean,rate and constituent ratio.[Results]A total of 15 017 mumps cases were reported in Xianyang City from 2005-2017,with average annual incidence rate was 23.11/lakh. The average age of onset was (11.44±8.70) years old,the male to female ratio was 1.81∶1, and most of patients were children(6-10 years old). The epidemic had a clear seasonal character,and the peak season appeared April to July. Most of cases were students,accounting for 63.44% . The best model for predicting the monthly incidence of mumps in Xianyang City from 2005-2017 was the Log Winters Method-Additive. [Conclusion]The incidence of mumps in Xianyang City in 2018 would be not changed compared with previous years,and the epidemic tends to be stable. It is necessary to continue to increase prevention and control efforts,improve the vaccination against mumps,and take active preventive measures to reduce the incidence of mumps in Xianyang City.
作者
李凤英
马婷
罗文瑞
刘美宁
马波
张荣强
LI Feng-ying;MA Ting;LUO Wen-rui;LIU Mei-ning;MA Bo;ZHANG Rong-qiang(Immunization Programme Department,Xianyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xianyang Shaanxi,712046,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Shaanxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xianyang Shaanxi,712046,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2018年第23期3235-3237,3241,共4页
Occupation and Health
基金
陕西中医药大学青年基金项目(2015QN05)
