摘要
收集2011年有代表性的4次东北冷涡过程的EC和T639模式的数值预报产品资料和常规观测资料及实况,进行形势场的天气学检验;选择T639、德国、日本数值预报模式降水产品,经过数据离散化、统一化处理后,针对东北冷涡天气背景,对内蒙古地区降水预报进行24、48h预报质量检验和分析。结果表明,EC和T639模式的形势场预报具有较高的参考价值,其中EC模式比T639模式稳定;T639、德国、日本模式的降水预报产品对冷涡降水具有一定的预报能力,但对各量级降水预报均存在空报和漏报现象,对中雨及其以上量级降水预报能力较差,各模式对东北冷涡背景下的强降水预报量级偏小。
Collecting 2011 representative four times northeast cold vortex process of EC and T639 model of numerical prediction product data and observation data, the situation field of four weather process were tested in synoptic meteorology. Choosing the precipitation products of T639, Germany, Japan numerical forecast patterns, with the data diseretization and unification method, the forecast quality of 24 and 48 hour were tested and analyzed at different of northeast cold vortex background in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that EC and T639 patterns have higher reference value in situation field, the EC mode was stabile than T639 mode. The precipitation forecasts production of T639, Germany, Japan pattern of had certain forecast ability in cold vortex precipitation prediction, but there were empty report and omission report phenomenon in every rainfall grade forecast. The forecast capacity was poorer for moderate rain and more than the order of precipitation forecasting. The magnitude of strong precipitation forecast was smaller under the background of the northeast cold vortex.
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2014年第4期3-6,共4页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
基金
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2012-010)
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2012M12)
内蒙古暴雨预报团队共同资助
关键词
东北冷涡
数值预报产品
降水
检验
northeast cold vortex
numerical prediction products
rainfall
test
