摘要
旨在研究2018年6月12日广西暴雨天气过程出现桂西漏报,桂东空报的原因,为今后预报提供参考,利用常规地面观测资料、探空资料和数值预报产品资料,对天气形势和物理量场进行分析,结果表明:暴雨过程预报不仅要注重大的环流形势分析,还要考虑水汽、能量条件的分析;预报员先入为主的预报思路和过分依赖数值预报产品,使得在其他要素分析的过程中侧重点不同,没有全面把握水汽、能量、动力条件的分析;中短期预报效果不好时,可以通过短时临近预报弥补。
The paper aims to study the reasons for the omissive forecast in western Guangxi and the empty forecast in eastern Guangxi on a rainstorm in June 12,2018,and provide reference for future forecast.Based on the conventional ground observation data,sounding data and numerical forecast data,the weather situation and the physical quantity field were analyzed.The results showed that the rainstorm process forecast should not only focus on the large circulation situation,but also consider the moisture and energy conditions.The forecasters’preconceived forecasting ideas and over-reliance on numerical forecast data made the emphasis on the process of other factors different,and the analysis of moisture,energy and dynamic conditions were not fully grasped.When the effect of short-term and medium-term forecast was not good,it could be compensated by short-term forecast.
作者
欧徽宁
黎馨
周渭
Ou Huining;Li Xin;Zhou Wei(Hezhou Meteorological Bureau,Hezhou Guangxi 542899)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2020年第10期122-126,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
贺州市科学研究与技术开发计划项目“贺州市公众暴雨预报研究与应用”(贺科攻1707038).
关键词
预报失误
检验
暴雨
物理量
forecast error
test
rainstorm
physical quantity
