摘要
中国的低生育率现状对未来经济和社会发展将产生负面的影响。在与其他国家和地区比较的基础上,认为中国的生育意愿处于极低的水平并简要分析了背后的原因。提出中国未来生育率的三重下行压力和导致生育率难以回升的三个恶性循环链条。最后比较了东亚各国和地区以及伊朗的人口形势变化、人口政策的改变轨迹和目前的鼓励措施。在此基础上,认为中国未来提升生育率,维持人口可持续发展的任务将极其艰巨。
China＇s low fertility now will bring about a negative impact to the future economic and social development. In comparison with other countries and regions, the paper points out that the willingness to give birth in China is very low now, whose causes are briefly studied in the paper. It then analyses three downward pressures on the nationt future fertility and three vicious？circle chains 1 culties of fertility rise. Finally it compares countries and regions in East Asia and Irma, change of their population situation, the roadmaps eading to diffi- referring to the of their population policy and present incentive measures. On this basis, it concludes that China will face extremely difficult tasks to increase fertility rate in the future and to maintain the sustainable population development.
出处
《人口与社会》
2015年第2期37-41,共5页
Population and Society
关键词
低生育率
生育意愿
计划生育政策
鼓励生育
low fertility rate
birth willingness
the family planning policy
encourage birth
