摘要
目的运用捕获-再捕获方法估计苏州市男男性行为（MSM）人群规模,为MSM人群艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法利用苏州1家访问量最高的MSM网站进行在线调查,参与调查者视为第一次捕获;第二次捕获通过MSM志愿者分类滚雪球法在场所内进行。结果第一次捕获共461人参加问卷调查,其中合格对象199人;第二次捕获由12名MSM志愿者用分类滚雪球方式在酒吧、浴室、公园和网络等场所进行,共招募合格对象304人,其中11人参与过第一次调查。运用捕获-再捕获法公式估计2012年苏州市MSM人群规模约为5 100人（95%CI：2 500~7 700）。结论通过MSM网站利用捕获-再捕获法估计活跃MSM人群具有可行性,但估计结果准确性受其实施条件的影响。
Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men（MSM）by capture-recapture method in Suzhou;to provide basis for carrying out prevention measures among MSM.Methods The most popular MSM website in Suzhou was selected for online survey,the enrolled subjects were considered as initial captured subjects.The second capture was conducted in MSM venues by MSM volunteers using classification snowball sampling method.Results A total of 461 MSM completed online survey,of which 199 subjects were eligible.The second capture was conducted by 12 MSM volunteers in MSM bars,bathrooms,parks and websites via classification snowball method.A total of 304 eligible subjects were recruited,of which 11 participated in initial capture.Based on capture and recapture formula,the estimated MSM population size in Suzhou was about 5 100（95% CI：2 500~7 700）.Conclusion Capture and recapture method based on MSM websites was applicable to estimate MSM population size.However,accuracy was influenced by actual implementation conditions.
出处
《江苏预防医学》
CAS
2015年第2期16-17,共2页
Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
中国全球基金艾滋病项目(CHN-304-G03-H)
苏州市科教兴卫青年项目(KJXW2012033)
关键词
捕获-再捕获法
男男性行为
艾滋病
Capture-recapture method
Men who have sex with men
AIDS
