摘要
目的掌握江苏省泗洪县的疟疾发病情况,评估疟疾在该区域的流行现状。方法采用捕获-再捕获统计学方法(CRM),估计该县的疟疾发病数和发病率。结果调查3个乡9个行政村,1248户,访问居民4986人,查出2002年疟疾56例(疫情报告65例),用CRM处理后,估计病例为121例,推算总体理论值是全县疫情的1.86倍。结论泗洪县血检资料与乡(镇)血检登记资料明显不符,说明该县对发热病人的常规血检工作存在较大隐患。个别乡发病率仍在0.2%以上,疟疾在该县的流行现状不容乐观。
Objective To investigate the real incidence of malaria in Sihong County located in the north of Jiangsu Province and estimate the epidemic actuality in this area. Methods By using the capture-recapture method (CRM), the patients and incidence of malaria were estimated in Sihong. Results In 9 villages of 3 townships, 4896 residents among 1248 families were investigated and 56 cases of malaria found (65 cases reported before) in 2002.There were 121 cases calculated by using CRM and the theoretic cases were 1.86 times of those which had been reported. Conclusion The data of blood-examination collected from the county and towns are obviously different. It indicates that there are potential troubles in the routine blood examination to the fevered patients in this county. The incidence of a certain town is still above 0.2%. The epidemic actuality of malaria is still serious in this county.[
出处
《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2005年第1期52-54,共3页
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control
关键词
捕获-再捕获方法
疟疾
评估
Capture-recapture method (CRM)
Malaria
Evaluation
