摘要
【目的】2013年底新疆红枣种植面积居全国首位,红枣产业已成为新疆部分地区农民致富的支柱产业。通过对红枣产业周期性波动的研究,探讨新疆红枣产业风险的来源以及防控措施。【方法】在数学方法上采用时差相关法和峰谷对应法,归纳出反映新疆红枣产业发展状况的先行、同步、滞后指标,对新疆红枣产业的发展形势与未来趋势进行分析评价。【结果】新疆红枣产业整体处于平稳发展,但很多信号已表现出产业发展周期性下行趋势。【结论】从优化金融服务体系,提高产品初加工能力,完善红枣交易市场的服务、信息、监督功能,发展多元化的产业运行模式等措施来提高红枣产业的抗风险能力。
【Objective】By 2013,Xinjiang jujube cultivation area ranked first in China,jujube industry has now become a pillar industry in some areas of Xinjiang and it has brought large amount of wealth to farmers. Meanwhile acreage explosive growth also raises concerns about whether there is overcapacity problem.Through the study of the red date industry cyclical fluctuations,the risk of Xinjiang red dates industry was researched and the source of prevention and control measures were explored. 【Method】The time- difference correlation analytical method and the peak- valley corresponding method were applied to reveal the leading,coincidence,lagging indicators in the state of Xinjiang jujube industry development,and the development of current situation was analyzed and the future trend of the jujube industry in Xinjiang evaluated.【Result】The results show that Xinjiang jujube industry is in a state of steady development,however,there are many signals showing that industrial development is declining. 【Conclusion 】To counter the causes of industry decline,some suggestions to optimize financial service system were raised to improve the product primary processing capacity and perfect the market＇s function of service,information,supervision and diversified development model to resist relevant risks in the industry.
出处
《新疆农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期386-391,共6页
Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences
基金
新疆自治区人文社科重点研究基地重点项目"新疆红枣产业评估与发展战略研究"(ZDJD2012A03)
新疆人文社会科学重点研究基地干旱区农村发展研究中心资助项目(XJEDLL030113Y03)
关键词
新疆红枣产
产业景气分析
时差相关法
景气指数
Xinjiang jujube industry
industry boom analysis
time-difference correlation analytical
industry climate index
