摘要
利用2011年前8个月的数据和资料分析了我国外贸形势,得出了以下结论:2011年年初以来,受日本地震、欧债危机、美债危机等不利因素的影响,我国进出口增速整体呈放缓趋势,出口类指标主要运行在衰退期和萧条期。但贸易结构有所改善,贸易顺差下降,一般贸易增速明显高于加工贸易增速,对新兴市场的出口成为新的贸易增长点。在贸易形势的变化中,技术密集型产品出口增速放缓和欧债危机的恶化最值得关注。预计下半年我国进出口将保持平稳增长,增速略低于上半年;全年增速相比2010年有明显回落。基于以上分析,提出了国家应采取措施稳定技术密集型产品出口,密切关注欧美经济发展动态,减少对欧美市场的依赖,帮助中小型外贸企业缓解资金紧张的困局,扩大人民币在跨境贸易与投资中的作用的建议。
The paper concludes that affected by Japan’s earthquake, European debt crisis and American debt crisis, the growth rate of China’s foreign trade started to slow down from the beginning of 2011. Exports indicators are lingering in recession or depression stage. But the trade structure has been improved: the surplus declines, the growth rate of the general trade is significant higher than that of processing trade, and the emerging markets become new stronghold for exports. Among the conditions of foreign trade, two changes need to be paid attention, the slow-down of technology-rich exports, and deterioration of European debt crisis. It is predicted that China’s foreign trade will keep a stable increasing in the second half of 2011, but the growth rate will be smaller than that of the first half year, and the growth rate of the whole year will be obvious lower than that of 2010. It is suggested that the central government should take measures to stabilize the exports of technology-rich products, take a close look at European and American economic difficult, reduce the dependence for European and American markets, help the small and medium exports enterprises alleviate fiscal strain, and promote RMB business in border trade.
出处
《科技促进发展》
2011年第9期26-31,共6页
Science & Technology for Development
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010):"十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究
首席专家:高铁梅
