摘要
股票市场与房地产市场之间的互动关系受替代效应、信贷—价格效应、财富效应的影响,同时还受GDP、利率、劳动力成本、价格水平、人口年龄结构等因素的共同作用,西方学者采用了相关系数分析、统一分割分析、因果关系分析、多变量VAR模型考察两者的互动关系,理论与实证表明,在不同国家、不同时段两者互动关系往往不同。股票市场与房产市场的内在影响机制会使一个市场风险传染至另一个市场,中国应警惕这种传染机制对宏观经济可能造成的负面冲击,防止泡沫经济、次贷危机在中国的上演。
The relationship between stock market and Real Estate market is affected by substitution effect,credit-price effect and portfolio adjustment effect,furthermore it is also affected by GDP,interest rate,labour cost,inflation and population age structure,Western scholars have used cross-correlation analy-sis,market integration/segmentation analysis,causal relationship analysis and multi-factor VAR analysis to investigate the relationship between the two market,theoretical and empirical research tells the relationship is different across different countries and different time intervals. Collapse in a market will induce collapse in an-other market because of the inherent effect mechanism between the two markets,China should be aware of neg-ative impact to macroeconomics from the two markets,avoiding appearance of bubble economy and subprime crisis in China.
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
2014年第6期147-157,共11页
Industrial Economic Review
