摘要
利用2000年6月至2011年6月国房景气指数、上海证券综合指数收盘指和居民消费价格指数的月度数据,对我国房地产市场、股票市场和通货膨胀的联动关系进行实证分析,得到与理论分析不同的结论:长期内,通货膨胀发生时房地产市场的繁荣会受到负面影响;短期内,股票市场受自身的影响很大并且比较稳定,然而受房地产市场和物价水平的冲击较小,并且均是负向的冲击。这一矛盾的结论又和当前我国居民消费价格指数和房价高位运行股市却日益低迷的经济形势十分吻合。物价水平受自身的影响很大,约在第24个月的时候才能回归到一个平稳的水平。对此,本研究提出了一些对策与建议。
This study used from June,2000 to June,2011 the country room booming index,Shanghai negotiable securities composite index and CPI the monthly data,to analysis the slinkage relations of our country real estate market,the stock market and the inflation,obtained some different conclusions wiht the theoretical analysis.Long-term in,the inflation occurs when the real estate market prosperity can come under the negative influence;In and short-term,stock market own influence very greatly quite stable,however is small the real estate market and the price level impact,and is the negative impact.This contradictory conclusion and the current our country inhabitants expend the price index and the house price top digit movement stock market day by day murky economic situation extremely tally actually.The price level is been very big own influence,approximately in 24th month-long time can return to a steady level.So this research proposed some countermeasures and the suggestions.
出处
《上海金融学院学报》
2011年第6期92-103,共12页
Journal of Shanhai Finance University
