摘要
本文通过构建湖北省的房地产合成指数,利用自相关滞后分布模型研究房地产景气变化与宏观经济和金融变量之间的计量关系。由此,本文对湖北省房地产景气波动的四个周期进行判别,寻找其中的政策冲击因素。本文发现,投资和居民是影响房地产景气的主要经济变量；而存款、真实利率、居民储蓄和中长期贷款是影响房地产景气的主要金融变量。据此。
This paper constructs the composite real estate index, and shows the econometric relation between real estate fluctuation and economic and financial variables, Four cycles and related policy shocks are analyzed, It is also shown that investment and household income are two major economic factors, which significantly affect real estate fluctuation; while financial variables, such as deposit, real interest rate, household savings and long term loans, also shape the cycle.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第4期166-175,共10页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
房地产景气
宏观调控
经济周期
real estate fluctuation, macroeconomic policy, business cycle
