摘要
2013年中国粮食产量实现历史性"十连增"。粮食产量的"十连增"实际是谷物产量"十连增",其中玉米对增产的贡献最大。在此背景下,近年来谷物进口也出现较大幅度增长,对国际市场依赖性逐步提高。2009年开始出现一种新格局,总体上呈现出明显大幅度增加态势,尤其是三大谷物先后变为净进口,"口粮绝对安全"的目标面临一定挑战。本文基于"恒定市场份额模型",对中国谷物进口增加的成因进行实证分析。结果显示,国内进口引力的变动是影响谷物进口额变动的最重要原因,进口引力增强主要来自加工业需求增加和政策性进口需求增加;此外,短期谷物净进口增加还受到利益层面的驱动,国内三大主粮价格均与国际市场形成较大差距。
China＇s grain production has achieved a historic ＂ten-year consecutive growth＂ till 2013. ＂Ten-year consecutive growth＂ of grain production is actually the rise of cereal production, and corn is the greatest contributor to yield. While there has been an increase in cereal imports, and the domestic supply has been more and more dependent on the international market. From 2009, cereal imports have shown a substantial increase： the three major cereals have become net importers. The target of ＂Rations absolutely safe＂ had been faced with some challenges. Based on a ＂Constant market share model＂, this paper focused on the causes of China＇s grain imports increasing empirical analysis. The results showed that： a change in domestic import-gravitational effects was the most important reason of import enhancement. Increasing demand of import-gravitational was mainly from industry and policy import demand. In addition, short-term increase in net imports of cereals was also driven by the interest; domestic three staple food prices have formed a large gap with that of the international market.
出处
《农业经济与管理》
2014年第6期61-69,共9页
Agricultural Economics and Management
