摘要
当前我国房地产市场的波动，本质上是一次迟到的周期性调整。把国际经验与我国实际情况结合起来判断：如果没有重大意外事件影响，这轮周期性调整可能持续3～5年时间，多数城市的调整幅度将达到商品房销售量和价格峰值的30％；明后年美国联邦基金利率的上调，将加大我国房地产市场调整的压力。其主要原因在于，住宅供给相对过剩，房价涨幅明显过大，市场预期发生变化，货币信贷环境偏紧，同时地方政府干预使市场矛盾越积越深。市场趋势性调整将对经济增长、金融运行产生严重影响，但具有相对滞后性、逐步放大性和区域分化性特点。政府需要顺应市场规律，采取有效措施稳定市场、调控经济、推进改革，减弱由此带来的负面冲击。
Currently, the fluctuation of China＇s real estate market is a late periodic adjustment in essence. Combined China＇s situation with international experience, we can estimate that this round of periodic adjustment may last for 3-5 years and the adjustment range of most cities will be 30% of the peak of commercial housing sales volume and price under the condition of no accidents. The following increase of US federal fund rate may exert more pressure on China＇s real estate market adjustment. The main reasons are relative excess supply of housing, exaggerate increase range of housing price, changing market expectation, tight environment of currency credit, and the intervention of local governments deepens the market contradiction. Market adjustment will exert fierce impact on economic growth and financial operation, but the impact is hysteretic, gradually deepened, and differentiated among regions. In order to remove the negative impact, the government should obey market rules and adopt efficient policies to stabilize market, operate economy and promote reform.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期17-26,共10页
Finance & Trade Economics
关键词
房地产市场
销售价格
政策取向
Real Estate Market, Sale Price, Policy Orientation
