摘要
2006年以来,中央与地方政府多次出台房地产调控政策。调控政策对不同城市房价的抑制是否有效,有效期能持续多久存在争议。本文在梳理2006—2017年房地产调控政策的基础上,基于断点回归理论和散点拟合方法,分析了房地产调控政策对不同城市住宅价格的影响。结果表明:第一,不同城市调控政策的实施效果存在明显的城际差异;第二,调控政策对房价的影响存在滞后现象,尤其是政策退出时;第三,现有的土地政策、税收政策均不利于房地产调控。据此,本文提出实施差异化调控政策,以解决中央与地方的利益冲突,构建房地产调控的长效机制等。
Since 2006,the central and local governments have repeatedly ruled out real estate regulation policy.Whether the regulation policy is effective against the housing price and how long it lasts are hot topics all the time.Based on analysis of the real estate regulation policy from 2006 to 2017 and the evolution of policy objectives and the specific policy tools,the article presents the impact of real estate regulation policy to urban housing price by regression discontinuity and scatter fitting.The result shows that:first,the impact of regulation policy which is implemented in different cities is different;second,regulation policy influences the urban housing price with hysteresis,especially the policy exit;third,present land policy and tax policy are not beneficial to real estate regulation.Finally,several suggestions are proposed as follows:implementing differential regulation policy;solving the interest conflict between the central government and the local government;and setting up a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation.
作者
曾德珩
陈春江
徐盼盼
ZENG Deheng;CHEN Chunjiɑng;XU Pɑnpɑn(School of Management Science and Real Estate,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,P.R.China)
出处
《建设管理研究》
2019年第1期77-97,共21页
Construction Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金专项基金应急管理项目“人口结构对区域房价的影响效应及差异性:基于多区域OLG-CGE模型研究”(71740027)
中央高校基金科研创新能力提升专项(2017CDJSK03XK02)联合支持.
关键词
房地产调控政策
城市住宅价格
断点回归
因城施策
real estate regulation policy
urban housing price
regression discontinuity
take differential policies in different cities
