摘要
利用协整理论和灰色系统理论，对上海市1995～2012年的全社会用电量进行分析，然后通过方差倒数法对2014～2020年电力需求进行组合预测．结果表明，组合预测的平均相对误差为2．06％，拟合精度较高．
By using the theory of co-integration and grey system, electric power consumption from 1995 to 2012 of Shanghai is analyzed. Moreover, a new combination model built in the method of Variance Reciprocal Weighting is represented to predict Shanghai power demand from 2014 to 2020. Research results show that the prediction is accurate, the average relative error is only 2.06%.
出处
《上海电力学院学报》
CAS
2014年第5期477-481,共5页
Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power
关键词
协整理论
误差修正模型
灰色系统
电力需求
预测
co-integration
error correction model
grey system
power demand
forecasting
