摘要
城镇化是未来中国社会变迁的主旋律,也是拉动内需、促进经济增长的主要动力。随着农村人口向城镇转移,居民收入水平和生活方式都将发生较大转变,这必然对能源消费提出更高的要求。研究清楚城镇化率的快速增长对中国生活能源需求产生怎样的影响,以及在城镇化进程中生活能源消费如何增长,对于帮助把握未来生活能源需求的变化,具有重要意义。实证分析表明,能源使用成本和人均生活能源消费具有显著的负相关关系,居民消费水平和人均生活能源消费具有显著的正相关关系。同时,研究还发现城镇化率对生活能源消费的影响具有滞后效应,滞后期为4年左右。考虑城镇化影响的滞后效应及中国城镇化进程,预计中国生活能源消费需求的增长将在2024年左右出现拐点,进入平稳增长期。
Urbanization is the form of China＇s future social change. It will expand domestic demand and promotes eco- nomic development. However,as rural people move into cities, their income level and life style will change significantly, which means much larger energy demand. Therefore, it is meaningful to study how the rapid progress will affect the residen- tial energy demand. This study covers several major factors that may affect it.. urbanization level, residential consumption level and cost of energy use. The key part is an analysis of the shift of residential energy consumption per capita caused by urbanization. An empirical analysis indicates a significant negative correlation relationship between the cost of energy use and the residential energy consumption per capitam,and a significant positive correlation relationship between residential con- sumption level and residential energy consumption per capita. The study also finds that the impact of urbanization upon resi- dential energy consumption lags for 4 years behind. Therefore,the turning point of China＇s residential energy consumption is estimated to be in 2024 and after that,it will step into its steady growth period.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期122-129,共8页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助青年项目"基于贝叶斯动态网络的能源流系统分析"
关键词
城镇化
人均生活能源消费
滞后效应
urbanization
residential energy consumption per capita
lag effect
