摘要
文章建立了我国居民人均生活用能量与其影响因素之间的VAR模型,对其进行Johansen协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,并以江苏省居民人均生活用能影响因素实证分析为例,进行补充检验分析。结果表明,人均消费支出的增长、人均生活能源消费结构的变化与生活能源消费量之间存在长期的协整关系,并且二者均是人均生活能源消费量变化的格兰杰原因。其中,人均消费支出存在较明显正效应,随着人均消费支出的增加,人均生活能源消费量会有所增长,但增长速度缓于实际消费支出的增加;人均生活能源消费结构的影响作用较弱,随着煤炭占比的减小,电力、天然气等高品质能源的消费量将不断增加,总体能效水平也将有所提升。
This paper establishes the VAR model between per capita household energy consumption and its influencing factors of China and makes Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test. In addition,taking influencing factors of Jiangsu’s household energy consumption for example,we make an added test analysis. The results show that long-term co-integration re-lationship exists among the growth of per capita consumption expenditure, per capita household energy consumption and its structure. And they are the Granger reasons of per capita household energy consumption. The effects of per capita consumption expenditure are positive. With the increase of per capita consumption expenditure, per capita household energy consumption will be increased,but its growth rate will be slower relatively. The effects of per capita household energy consumption structure are relatively weaker. With coal’s rate reducing, rate of electricity and natural gas growing, high-quality energy will be in-creased continuously. The overall level of energy efficiency will also be improved.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2013年第11期57-61,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71273258)
江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(09EYA001)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点项目和基地重大项目(2010JDXM013)
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(12&ZD062)
