摘要
基于1997～2011年我国30个省区的面板数据，按照城市化水平的高低划分为三个组别，采用STIR—PAT模型实证研究了不同城市化阶段碳排放影响因素的差异，并验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性。结果表明：随着城市化阶段的演进，城市化对碳排放的驱动作用越来越小，家庭小型化日趋成为引起碳排放增加的重要因素；在城市化不同阶段，人均财富对碳排放均具有显著的正影响，尤其是在城市化中期阶段；在城市化不同阶段，环境库兹涅茨曲线都是存在的，但距到达碳排放拐点分别需要12年、31年和23年。最后，根据不同城市化阶段碳排放的特点，提出了有针对性的碳减排对策。
Based on 1997 - 2011 panel data of 30 provinces in China, this paper analyzes the different impacts of three urbanization sta- ges on carbon emissions by using the STIRPAT model, and verifies whether the environmental Kuznets Curve exists in different urbani- zation stages. The results show that, along with the development of urbanization, the driving effect of urbanization on carbon emissions becomes smaller and smaller, but the miniaturization of household size plays a more and more important role in the increase of carbon emissions; per capita wealth has a significantly positive impact on carbon emissions in the three urbanization stages, especially at the middle stage of urbanization; the environmental Kuznets curve exists in the initial stage, middle stage and higher stage of urbanization, but reaching the turning point of carbon emissions needs 12 years, 31 years and 23 years respectively. Finally, it proposes targeted counter-measures to reduce carbon emissions according to its characteristics in different stages of urbanization.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期1-7,共7页
Economic Survey
基金
国家社会科学基金(西部)项目(10XYJ015)
