摘要
本文基于单指标体系法构建1990-2016年我国省域的碳排放指数,采用空间计量中的杜宾模型(SDM)和时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)两种方法,从全局相关性和局部差异性的角度,分析经济发展水平、能源结构水平、城市化水平、科技投入水平以及周围省市相关因素对各省市碳排放指数变化的动态影响。研究发现:经济发展水平和能源结构水平在总体上与碳排放指数的变化呈现出负相关关系,但是经济发展水平的变化对碳排放指数的变化的影响在2015年之前呈现出逐渐增强的趋势,之后出现下降;各省市的城市化水平和科技投入水平对碳排放指数变化的影响方向是不同的,且城市化水平对碳排放指数变化的影响逐年增强,部分省市的科技投入水平与碳排放指数之间的关系由负相关转变为正相关。
This paper builds the carbon emission index of China’s provinces from 1990 to 2016 based on a single index system construction method.It adopts two methods,namely,the Dobin Model(SDM)and the Spatial-Temporal Geographic Weighted Regression Model(GTWR)in spatial measurement.From the perspective of global correlation and local differences,this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of economic development level,energy structure level,urbanization level,technological input level,and related provinces and cities on the changes in the carbon emissions index of each province and city.The study found that the level of economic development and the level of energy structure generally showed a negative correlation with the changes in the carbon emission index,but the impact of changes in the level of economic development on the changes in the carbon emission index showed a gradually increasing trend before 2015.Afterwards,there was a decline;the impact of the urbanization level and the level of scientific and technological input on the change of the carbon emission index in different provinces and cities are diverse,and the impact of the level of urbanization on the change of the carbon emission index has increased year by year.The relationship between the level of scientific and technological investment and the indices carbon emissions in some provinces and cities changed from negative correlation to positive correlation.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第10期59-62,167,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
碳排放指数
空间计量
动态影响因素
Carbon Emission Index
Spatial Measurement
Dynamic Influencing Factors
