摘要
本文通过对1995-2010年间中国与42个贸易伙伴国之间在制造业16个行业的双边进口贸易进行引力模型的计量分析,得出影响中国进口贸易的关键因素有双边贸易成本、中国所处的国际分工水平、中国及贸易伙伴国各行业的经济发展规模和收入水平、中国双边出口贸易水平。人民币实际有效汇率及外商直接投资也是进口贸易增长的影响因素,但系数不稳定。基于上述分析,本文提出了采取降低双边贸易成本,提高国际分工和竞争力水平,提高产出和工人工资及促进出口等相应措施,以期进一步提升中国各行业进口贸易水平,促进经济快速发展。
This article analyzes the influence factors of China＇s bilateral import trade through the quantitative analysis of trade gravity model between China and 42 trading partners in 16 manufacturing industries from 1995 to 2010. it is concluded that the key factors that affect China＇s import trade mainly include the bilateral trade cost, China＇s international specialization level, the output and wages level of China and trade partners, China＇s bilateral export trade. The influence of RMB real effective exchange rate, FDI are also important but not stable. Then we put forward the corresponding measures to reducing the cost of bilateral trade, to raising the level of international division and competitiveness, to improving the output and wages and boos- ting exports, to further enhance the import trade and promote the rapid economic development.
出处
《中国经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期99-108,共10页
China Economic Studies
关键词
引力模型
双边贸易成本
国际分工
行业产出
gravity model
bilateral trade cost
international specialization
industry output
