摘要
提出了一种能定量确定电网主设备经济退役点的方法。首先假设设备的累计失效概率符合三参数威布尔分布,构建设备失效模型;其次通过最小二乘法和最大相关系数优化法确定分布参数,由此得到设备的失效率;最后假设运维成本与失效率成正比,在时间-成本坐标系上同时画出运维成本曲线和退役成本曲线,其交点即为设备最佳退役时间。最后以SF6断路器为例,描述了如何使用该方法确定电网主设备的经济退役点。
This paper proposed an approach for the quantitative determination of economic disposal time of primary electricity equipments. Firstly, the failure mode of equipments was constructed under the assumption that the accumulated failure probability could be described by three-parameter Weibull distribution. Secondly, the distribution parameters were determined by the least square method and the maximum correlation coefficient optimization method, so as to obtain the failure rate of equipments. Thirdly, with assuming that the operation-maintenance cost was proportional to the failure rate, the economic disposal time of the equipments was the intersection of the disposal cost curve and the operation-maintenance cost curve in the same time-cost coordinate system. Finally, taking SF6 circuit breaker as example, this paper described how to use this method to determine the economic disposal time of primary electricity equipments.
出处
《电力建设》
2014年第6期165-168,共4页
Electric Power Construction
关键词
设备退役
失效率
威布尔分布
equipment disposal
failure rate
Weibull distribution
