摘要
通过拓展消费效用函数并构建面板门槛模型,考察了通胀预期对城镇居民消费增长的非线性影响效应。当通胀预期低于门槛值时,其对城镇居民消费增长有显著抑制影响;而当通胀预期高于门槛值时则会产生正向刺激作用。与此同时,通胀预期对城镇居民消费增长的非线性影响效应呈现较明显的区域异质性。我国需参考通胀预期水平变化有效运用货币政策并搭配税收、补贴及社会保障政策来调控城镇居民消费增长,加强对通胀预期的合理引导。
By extending the consumption utility function and constructing the panel threshold model, this paper explores the nonlinear effect of inflation expectation on urban consumption growth. The findings indicate that when inflation expectation is below the threshold value, it will restrain urban consumption growth significantly. However, as inflation expectation exceeds the threshold value, it will make a positive contribution to urban consumption growth. In the meanwhile, the nonlinear effect of inflation expectation on urban consumption growth exhibits a significant regional difference. Based on inflation expectation changes, monetary policies together with tax, subsidy and social insurance policies should be implemented effectively so as to regulate urban consumption growth and strengthen the rational guidance of inflation expectation.
出处
《东北大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期354-359,共6页
Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)
关键词
通胀预期
城镇居民消费增长
面板门槛模型
inflation expectation
urban consumption growth
panel threshold model
