摘要
在国际政治中,一个国家在面对对手联盟可能造成的安全威胁和对自身发展的阻碍时,既可以选择通过发展军备和结盟来增强自身力量,也可以主动采取措施削弱、限制和破坏针对自己的实际或潜在联盟,这些措施可以被称做分化对手联盟战略。根据战略效果的不同,分化对手联盟战略的主要目标包括阻止新的潜在结盟国家加入对手联盟,促使对手联盟中的某些成员在对抗和冲突中保持中立,吸引某些国家在竞争中转而支持自己以及拉拢对手联盟中的成员加入己方阵营。根据与联盟政治相关的既有理论和历史经验,分化对手联盟战略可以被分为合作性战略、对抗性战略及观望性战略等三种主要类型。冷战结束后,美国主导的北约东扩进程对俄罗斯的国家安全和地区影响力构成了严峻挑战。面对北约向中东欧尤其是独联体国家持续扩张,俄罗斯试图综合运用合作与对抗等多种手段阻止周边邻国加入北约。尽管这些战略努力既有成功经验也有失败教训,但是俄罗斯中止格鲁吉亚和乌克兰加入北约进程的努力展示出分化对手联盟战略在当今单极体系下的成功案例。
Facing a rival alliance's potential or real security threats,a state can take active measures to weaken,prevent or break that alliance,which is considered as dividing rival alliance.The goal of dividing rival alliances is including:(1) preventing potential candidate from joining that alliance,(2) trying to push a member of the rival alliance to take a neutral position,(3) inducing some states to support us,and(4) inducing some states to join our alliance.Based on existing theoretical analyses and historical records,the strategies of dividing rival alliance can be categorized into three main groups;cooperative strategies,confrontational strategies,and waiting-and-seeing strategies.In the post-cold war era,when confronted with the NATO expansion dominated by the United States,Russia has tried to prevent some of its neighboring countries from joining the NATO.Whereas there are a lot of lessons of failure for Russia's strategic efforts,both Ukraine and Georgia's diminishing possibility of NATO membership has provided us with successful cases in the cotemporary unipolar world.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期48-65,157-158,共18页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
分化对手联盟
合作性战略
对抗性战略
观望性战略
联盟理论
dividing rival alliances
cooperative strategies
confrontational strategies
waiting-and-seeing strategies
