摘要
本文在理论分析的基础上,综合运用静态面板、动态面板与非参数分析等多种方法考察了中国1990—2010年人口年龄结构变化对通货膨胀的影响。实证分析的结果显示,少儿人口比例的上升会推动通货膨胀率的上升,而劳动年龄人口和老年人口比重上升则降低通货膨胀率;经济增长率、固定资产投资增长率、贷款增长率以及消费比重提高对通货膨胀有显著的推动作用。进一步的非参数分析表明不同阶段的人口老龄化对通货膨胀的影响不同,当老龄化程度较高时,老年人口比重上升会推动通货膨胀率的上升。论文最后在实证研究结论基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。
Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper uses a variety of methods to explore the impact of change in demographic age structure on inflation in China from 1990 to 2010. By using provincial data, the result shows that the proportion of children population is positively associated with the inflation, whereas the proportion of labor population and elderly population is negatively related to the inflation. This study also finds that the GDP growth rate, the investment growth rate, the loan growth rate and the consumption proportion are also positively associated with the inflation. However, the nonparametric analysis shows that the effect of elderly population on inflation is dependent on the level of aging. When the society enters a high degree of aging, the proportion of elderly population is positively associated with the inflation. Finally, we propose some policy recommend- ations.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期77-93,共17页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家教育部人文社科基地重大课题"中国住房与人口变化研究"(12JJD840002)资助
