摘要
本文在人口年龄结构影响通货膨胀理论分析的基础上,利用1991-2014年中国内地30个地区面板数据,构造人口年龄结构影响通货膨胀的动态空间面板模型,对理论分析的推理结果进行实证检验。实证分析的结果显示,从全国整体数据来看,少儿人口比例与通货膨胀率存在正相关关系,劳动年龄人口和老龄人口比率与通货膨胀率存在负相关关系;从分地区数据来看,东中西部人口年龄结构对通胀的影响略有不同,东部地区通货膨胀率受人口年龄结构影响的显著性较中西部低,西部地区老龄人口比重对通货膨胀的抑制作用最大。
Based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of population age structure on inflation, this paper constructs a spatial dynamic panel model impacting inflation by using 30 regional panel data of China during 1991-2014. The reasoning results of theoretical analysis were then experimentally tested. The results showed that according to the general national data, there existed a positive correlation between the proportion of underage population and inflation rates while negative correlation were found between the ratio of labor-age population and the aging population and inflation rates. According to the regional data, the influences of population structure of the east and west regions on inflation were slightly different since the influence of population structure on the inflation rate of the east region was less significant than that of the mid-west re- gion. Meanwhile, a most remarkable inhibition effect of aging population proportion on inflation was found in the west region.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期32-43,共12页
Studies of International Finance
