摘要
采用1990—2014年跨国面板数据,以人均GDP作为门槛变量,构建面板门槛回归模型,实证检验了少儿抚养负担对劳动参与率的影响机制。研究结果发现,不同收入水平的国家,少儿抚养比对劳动参与率的影响具有差异性,低收入国家的少儿抚养比对劳动参与率有促进作用;中高收入国家的少儿抚养比对劳动参与率有抑制作用。研究结论对我国全面二孩政策的启示有三点:其一,不同经济发展区域应制定差异化的人口政策,以应对不同收入水平下少儿抚养对劳动参与率的影响;其二,进一步完善社会保障体系,探索就业、教育、住房、医疗、养老等保障制度改革,解决少儿照料及成长后的抚养成本问题;其三,转变经济增长方式,转变对劳动力数量依赖下的"人口红利"增长模式,增加资本、技术等因素对经济增长的贡献程度。
By adopting the 1990-2014 transnational panel data and with GDP per capita as threshold variable, this paper constructs a panel threshold regression model and empirically tests the influence mechanism of child - rearing burden on labor participation rate. The results show that in the countries with different income levels,the influence of child - rearing ratio on labor participation rate is different: the child - rearing ratio in low - income countries has a promoting effect on labor participation rate while the child-rearing ratio in middle-income and highincome countries has a restraining effect on labor participation rate. The resarch conclusion has the following three enlightenments for China comprehensive two - child policy: a. Different economic development regions should formulate differentiated population policies to cope with the impact of child -rearing on labor participation rate at different income levels;b. Social security system should be further improved and the reform of such security systems as employment,education,housing,medical care and old-age should be explored so as to solve the problem of the raising cost of child care and upbringing;and c. The " population dividend" growth model that depends on the number of labor force should be changed so as to increase the contribution degree of capital,technology and other factors to economic growth.
作者
廖宇航
雷丽华
LIAO Yuhang;LEI Lihua(School of Management,Hainan Medical University,Haikou 571199,China;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Trade,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《山东财经大学学报》
2019年第1期50-61,共12页
Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics
基金
海南省哲学社会科学基金项目"医疗服务补偿机制研究"(HNSK(QN)17-51)
海南省教育厅科研项目"海南省老年人养老方式选择及影响因素研究"(HNKY2016-29)
关键词
少儿抚养比
劳动参与率
面板门槛模型
child-rearing ratio
labor participation rate
panel threshold model
