摘要
作者以联合国安全理事会改革背景下的大国博弈与决策机制为例,基于多智能体建模与仿真技术,通过概念模型(因果关系图)、数学模型(变量定义与规则设计)和计算机模型(Netlogo软件编程)的完整建模过程,构建一个安理会改革方案比较的多智能体仿真系统。作者以效率(数量效率-质量效率)与公平(权利公平-机会公平)为主要衡量标准,构建严格的实验环境,模拟比较和测度不同改革方案和参数设置下安理会各理事国的博弈进程和决策结果,探讨了个体利益和联盟利益的权重分配、现有常任理事国的否决权存废问题、安理会扩大后的成员规模(新增成员数量)、新增常任理事国是否应当享有否决权等关键性、争议性议题,为联合国安理会的改革规划提供理论建议和技术支持,是复杂性科学理论和计算机仿真技术(特别是多智能体理论与技术)在国际政治与国际关系领域的前沿拓展,赋予国际政治与国际关系学科新的研究视角与方法论体系和一次新尝试。
To analyze great power games in the context of UN Security Council(SC)reform,a multi-agent simulation model that is designed to compare the SC reform schemes is built through conceptual model(causal reasoning chart),mathematic model(rules design) and computer model(Netlogo programming),to simulate the game process and decision outcomes of security council under varied reform schemes and different parameters setup,to discuss the crucial and controversial issues of SC reform such as the veto power of current permanent members,the scale of enlarged members and the veto power of new permanent members,and to provide thoughts and advice for UN Security Council reform.This paper is to pioneer multi-agent system theory and technology in the field of international politics and relationships,endowing the discipline with a new research perspective and methodological system.Also,it is an innovative attempt to advance politics simulation experiment research(the computerized and experimental politics).
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第6期136-155,160,共20页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
安理会改革
方案比较
计算群体决策
多智能体模拟
Security Council reform
scheme comparison
computational collective decision
multi-agent modeling and simulation
