摘要
基于分形理论,用功率谱分析方法对道路交通事故时间序列进行可行性研究,得出的结论是:在统计意义上,道路交通事故时间序列具有自仿射性,可以用分形理论进行进一步的研究。在此基础上将R/S分析方法应用于道路交通事故预测中,得到道路交通事故的发展趋势和分形维数。
Based on the fractal theory, an research on the feasibility of traffic accident time series by the power spectrum analysis is presented. The calculation result shows that in the sense of statistics, time series of traffic accidents has certain self- affinity, which can be studied with the fractal theory. Then, the R/S fractal analysis method was applied to forecast the traffic accidents. The trend prediction and the fractal dimension are achieved. The calculation result shows that the trend of national traffic accidents will continue to reduce in the next few years.
出处
《农业装备与车辆工程》
2013年第5期47-49,共3页
Agricultural Equipment & Vehicle Engineering
关键词
交通事故
分形理论
功率谱
R/S分析法
分形维数
traffic accident
fractal theory
power spectrum
R/S fraetal analysis
fractal dimension
