摘要
为了对矿山生产领域安全状况演化趋势进行准确预测,考虑实际生产中的季节性因素,本文构建季节-WNN组合模型对生产事故进行预测。其中,采用X-12-ARIMA模型对安全事故时序进行季节调整,将其分成平稳时间序列和季节因子序列。季节因子序列每年呈现相同规律,用WNN模型预测平稳时间序列,再按照乘法模型还原为真实预测序列。本文以我国煤矿生产安全为背景,将2015—2019年煤矿月度死亡人数作为观测值进行建模,预测2020年月度煤矿事故死亡人数,并将其与2020年煤矿事故月度死亡人数的真实值进行验证,将几种典型的预测模型与本文所构建模型进行对比分析。结果表明:我国煤矿事故存在显著的季节性特征,季节-WNN组合模型的平均相对误差为1.1%,预测精度显著优于单一的预测模型,且与我国煤矿事故实际走势较为吻合,具有良好的预测效果。预测模型可为安全事故的预测提供方法和指导,也可为煤矿安全生产监管决策提供依据。
In order to accurately predict the evolution trend of the safety status in the mine production field,considering the seasonal factors in the actual production,this paper constructs a seasonal-WNN combination model to predict production accidents.Among them,the X-12-ARIMA model is used to adjust the safety accident sequence seasonally,and it is divided into a stationary time sequence and a seasonal factor sequence.The seasonal factor sequence show that the same law every year.The WNN model is used to predict the stationary time series,and then the multiplication model is used to restore the real forecast sequence.Based on the production safety of coal mines in our country,the monthly death toll of coal mines from 2015 to 2019 is modeled as the observed value,and the monthly death toll from coal mine accidents in 2020 is predicted,and the true value of the monthly death toll from coal mine accidents in 2020 is verified.Several typical comparative analysis of the predicted model and the constructed model.The results show that our country s coal mine accidents have significant seasonal characteristics.The average relative error of the seasonal-WNN combination model is 1.1%.The forecast accuracy is significantly better than the single forecast model,and it is more consistent with the actual trend of coal mine accidents in my country,and have a good forecasting effect.The prediction model can provide methods and guidance for the prediction of safety accidents,and can also provide a basis for coal mine safety production supervision and decision-making.
作者
郭进平
周国悦
晏承园
GUO Jinping;ZHOU Guoyue;YAN Chengyuan(School of Resources Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
2022年第9期81-88,共8页
China Mining Magazine
