摘要
随着城市化进程和机动车数量的激增,带来道路交通事故的频繁发生,造成严重的社会问题和伤害。为更好监测与预测交通事故的发生,减少人员伤亡和财产损失,对贵州山区道路交通事故发生机制进行研究很有必要。以贵州省为例,利用GIS技术,自动采集道路密度、曲率、比降等信息;根据分形理论,探讨贵州省9个行政区道路分形特征,研究道路因素耦合下的交通事故发生机制。结果表明:(1)2009年~2014年贵州省道路交通事故可划分为两个时期,即事故低发期和事故高发期,事故低发期交通事故变异系数呈现上升趋势,事故高发期交通事故变异系数呈现下降趋势;(2)贵州省道路密度、曲率、比降、分维4个指标与第1主成份可线性表达为Z1=0.000X1-0.018 X2-0.004 X3+0.872 X4;(3)贵州省道路交通事故受路的因素影响较为复杂,影响关系呈现三次拟合非线性相关,且事故低发期R2>0.79、事故高发期R2<0.49。
Urbanization process and sharp increase in the number of motor vehicles have brought frequent occurrence of road traffic accidents and caused serious social problems and injuries. In order to better monitor and forecast the occurrence of traffic accidents, reduce casualties and property losses, it is necessary for the mountainous area in Guizhou Province to study the mechanism of road traffic accidents. Taking Guizhou Province as an example in this paper, GIS technology is used to automatically collect the information of the road density, curvature and ratio, etc.. According to fractal theory the fractal characteristics of 9 administrative regions in Guizhou Province are explore and the mechanism of road traffic accidents is studied under the road factor coupling. The results show that： （1）from year 2009 to 2014 road traffic accidents in Guizhou Province can be divided into two periods, namely, the low incidence of accidents and the high incidence of accidents; the coefficient of variation （Cv）of traffic accidents shows an upward trend during the low incidence of accidents, and a downward trend during the high incidence of accidents; （2）the relationship between the 4 indicators of road density, curvature, ratio and fractal dimension in Guizhou Province and the first main components can be linearly expressed as.Z1 = 0. 000X1- 0. 018X2-0. 004X3＋0. 872X4; and （3）the traffic accidents affected by the road factors in Guizhou Province is more complex, and shows a non-linear correlation, and the fitting coefficient （R^2）is greater than 0.79 for the low incidence of accidents, and less than 0.49 for the high incidence of accidents.
出处
《公路》
北大核心
2017年第6期197-203,共7页
Highway
基金
贵州省道路交通事故鉴定工程技术中心基金资助(黔道交鉴合G字[2015]10013号)
贵州师范大学2015年博士科研启动项目
贵州省水利厅自然科研基金
项目编号KT201402
关键词
贵州省
道路分形
交通事故
影响机制
Guizhou Province
fraetal road
traffic accidents
influence mechanism
