摘要
利用动态偏离—份额分析法动态地分析了江苏省1996—2010年的经济发展状况。得出结论:江苏经济增长很大程度上依赖于以往的惯性增长,产业结构和区位条件对经济增长的贡献率仍然偏低,并没有想象的高;江苏省的产业结构升级尽管走在全国的前列,但仍然滞后于江苏的经济增长,传统的优越的区位条件已对苏南经济的增长形成阻碍;江苏各个地区的产业结构和区位条件并没有持续的改善,苏南的产业结构对经济增长的带动作用明显大于苏中、苏北地区,可区位因素对经济的贡献越来越表现为苏北、苏中大于苏南地区;要想江苏经济高水平的可持续发展就应转变经济发展观念、放缓增长速度、调整产业结构、南北联动发展、苏南区位优势再造、苏中、苏北区位优势跟进。
This paper analyzed the economic development of Jiangsu province during 1996--2010 dynamically with dynamic shift- share analysis method. The main conclusions are： the economic growth of Jiangsu is largely dependent on the previous inertial growth, and the contribution of industrial structure and location conditions to economic growth rate is still lower than expected; although the up- grading of the industrial structure in Jiangsu Province takes the lead domestically, it still lags behind the economic growth in Jiangsu, the traditional advantageous location condition has hampered the economic growth in South Jiangsu; the industrial structure and location conditions of all regions in Jiangsu are not continuously improved, the driving force of industrial structure of South Jiangsu on the eco- nomic growth is significantly greater than in the central and North Jiangsu, however, the contribution of location factors to the economy is on the contrary. To maintain the high level sustainable economic development of Jiangsu, we should change economy development i- dea, slow down economic growth rate, adjust industrial structure, develop the North and South jointly, reconstruct advantage of the south Jiangsu, and follow up the advantages of Central and North Jiangsu.
出处
《科技与经济》
CSSCI
2013年第2期101-105,共5页
Science & Technology and Economy
关键词
江苏
动态偏离-份额分析法
经济增长
产业结构
区位条件
Jiangsu
dynamic shift-share analysis
economic growth
industrial structure
location conditions
