摘要
人力资本结构与产业结构相匹配的重要性已得到许多学者的肯定,但如何解读和实现这种匹配尚有许多基础性理论问题需要探讨,其中之一是人力资本投资与积累的人口结构变动因素问题。现有的人口红利研究基本都是针对第一人口红利的,第二人口红利虽然在人口老龄化浪潮下越来越受到重视,但系统而深入的研究明显不足。基于此,本文在界定第二人口红利的内涵和构建生命周期储蓄模型的基础上,将理性预期下经济行为调整的5个参数纳入数理模型,分析第二人口红利与储蓄率的关系,探讨人口老龄化浪潮下如何进一步加大人力资本投资,获取人口红利,促进经济发展。并基于理性预期对人力资本积累提高如何与产业升级需求相匹配问题进行了初步讨论。
Studies on demographic dividend is almost all about the first demographic dividend. On the contrary, there are rare researches on the second demographic even it is given increasing attention along with the aged tendency of population swept over the to clearly define the connotation of the second world. This thesis focuses on accomplishing thses tasks. First, demographic and make stretch based on pre -existing researches. Second, to develop a model and unprecedented translate economic behavior modifications based on rational expectations, what the second demographic dividend emphasized, into 5 parameters, then find out the relationship between the rate of saving and the second demographic dividend to support further researches on how demographic dividend promote economic growth.
出处
《产经评论》
2013年第2期113-125,共13页
Industrial Economic Review
关键词
第二人口红利
储蓄率
理性预期
经济行为调整
second demographic dividend
rate of saving
rational expectations behavior adjustment
