摘要
本研究利用全要素生产函数分解了我国30年来人口红利对经济增长的贡献率。结果表明,劳动力数量贡献占9%,劳动力质量贡献占10.4%,人口因素贡献占19.4%。当把劳动力进一步分解为人口红利和总人口增加的影响后发现,人口红利解释了劳动力增长的33.6%,即每年对经济增长的贡献约为3%。为了充分发挥人口红利,应实行提高人力资本水平和劳动参与率水平的政策。
This research decomposes the contribution of the demographic dividend to China＇s economic growth using total factor productivity function.The results show that the population factor contributes to 19.4% of the economic growth,in which labor quantity 9% and labor quality 10.4%.When the labor component is further decomposed into the demographic dividend and total population increase,33.6% of the labor increase is explained by the demographic dividend,that is,the demographic dividend contributes 3% annually to economic growth.We discuss the policy implications regarding improvement of human capital and labor force participation of the results.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期16-23,77,共9页
Population & Economics
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(10XNI013)
关键词
人口红利
人口转变
经济增长
全要素生产函数
demographic dividend
population transition
economic growth
total factor productivity function
