摘要
基于负荷预测的不确定性建立了峰荷的隶属函数,并结合负荷的离散概率分布建立了负荷的模糊概率模型。根据威布尔分布的风电场的风速模型,用蒙特卡罗仿真方法评估电力系统的可靠性。通过可靠性测试系统IEEE-RTS79,分析比较了没有风电接入和风电大规模接入的情况,讨论了增加风电机组和常规机组对电力系统可靠性的影响。
This paper formulates a peak load membership function based on the load forecast uncertainty, and establi- shes the load fuzzy probability model by combining with the load discrete probability distribution. Monte Carlo simula- tion is conducted to assess power system reliability according to the wind speed Weibull distribution model. Through reliability test system IEEE-RTS79, the reliability indices before and after wind power access are compared and the effects on power system reliability are discussed after adding wind turbine generators and conventional generators.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2013年第2期385-389,共5页
East China Electric Power
基金
国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A118)~~
关键词
风电接入
负荷模糊概率模型
蒙特卡罗抽样
可靠性评估
wind power grid integration
load fuzzy probability model
Monte Carlo sampling
reliability assessment
