摘要
针对现有风电场运行风险评估结果不够精确的问题,对风电场风速相关性、风电出力预测模型、运行风险评估等方面进行了研究。将矩阵变换法用于风速相关性模拟中,定量模拟了同一风带下具有一定相关性的多风电场风速状况;利用风电出力模型计算了风电短期预测值,并采用Beta分布对给定出力的条件概率进行了建模;同时,利用用两状态天气模型,量化了天气因素尤其是恶劣天气对风电场运行风险评估的影响。在研究的基础上提出了一种综合考虑风速相关性、出力不确定性和天气因素的风电场运行风险评估方法,并给出了基于非序贯蒙特卡洛法的具体风险评估流程,并利用含风电场的IEEE-RTS系统进行仿真分析。研究结果表明,该方法可以提供更为精确且符合实际运行条件的风险评估结果,为风电场运行风险评估提供参考。
Aiming at the problem that the operation risk assessment of wind farm was not accurate, the wind speed dependence, the wind power output forecasting model, and the operational risk assessment were studied. The matrix transform method was used to simulate the wind speed conditions between different wind farm, and quantity the wind speed conditions with certain correlation. The wind power output model was used to calculate the predicted values of short-term wind power, and the Beta distribution was used to model the conditional probability of a given output. At the same time, in order to quantify the impact of weather factors especially the bad weather on the operation risk assess- ment of wind farm, the two state weather model was used. And an operation risk assessment method of wind farm operation was presented, which took into account the correlation of wind speed and the output uncertainty and the weather factor. The risk assessment process based on non-sequential Monte Carlo method was given, and the improved IEEE-RTS79 system with wind farm was used for the simulation. The results indicate that the method can provide more accurate and reasonable risk assessment results, and provide reference for the operation risk as-sessment of wind farms.
出处
《机电工程》
CAS
2016年第3期319-325,共7页
Journal of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering
关键词
风电场
运行风险
风速相关性
出力不确定性
天气条件
wind farms
operation risk
wind speed correlation
wind output uncertainty
weather conditions
