摘要
在同时考虑发电机组和输电线路可靠性的前提下,引入了等效无风电场景,利用蒙特卡洛法来评估风电并网后对系统可靠性的影响,并基于此场景提出在可靠性意义下风电备用需求的计算方法,来量化风电间歇性对系统可靠性的影响。同时随着南方电网风电渗透率逐步增加,需要对风电在规划中的容量效益以及对系统容量充裕度的贡献进行评估,来减小电力供需预测产生的偏差,避免投资浪费,并为今后电力市场改革中容量市场的建立提供数据参考和支持。以上述可靠性评估模型为基础,基于序列运算对南方电网风电可信容量和容量可信度进行评估,并以南方电网实际系统为例,研究风电出力特性、渗透率和风区相关性等对容量可信度的影响。
This paper introduces equivalent no-wind scenarios and uses Monte Carlo method to evaluate the influence of wind power intermittent on system reliability,with considering the reliability of generators and transmission lines at the same time. Based on this scenario,the calculation method of wind power reserve requirement under reliability was proposed to quantize the influence of wind power intermittent characteristics on system reliability. Meanwhile,along with the gradual increase of wind power permeability in CSG,it is necessary to evaluate the capacity benefit of wind power in system planning and the contribution of system capacity adequacy,in order to reduce the deviation caused by power supply and demand forecasting and reduce excessive investment,which can also provide data reference and support for the capacity market development in future electric market reform. Based on the reliability evaluation model,this paper evaluates the credible capacity and capacity credit of wind power in CSG by using sequence operation. Finally,taking a practical case in CSG as example,the influence of wind power output characteristics,penetration factor and wind area relativity on capacity credit are studied.
出处
《电力建设》
北大核心
2015年第10期161-166,共6页
Electric Power Construction
基金
中国南方电网公司科技项目(SEPRI-B12036)~~
关键词
风电
可靠性
蒙特卡洛法
备用容量
风电可信容量
风电容量可信度
wind power
reliability
Monte Carlo method
reserve capacity
wind power credible capacity
wind power capacity credit
