摘要
目前水上交通冲突研究较少且主要依赖于人工观测的冲突数据,然而主观判断的不一致性给水上交通冲突研究带来极大误差。提出了临界冲突区域的概念,将船舶同时处于临界冲突区域的情况定义为水上交通冲突,并根据交汇水域交通流特征以及不同的船舶会遇态势建立了计算交汇水域船舶冲突的概率模型,并对影响冲突概率的因素进行了分析。研究结果表明,模型与实际情况相符,在缺乏观测资料的情况下该方法为交汇水域的安全研究提供了一种算法。
Nowadays, research on ship conflict mainly relies on the data from manual observation. However, it＇s not reliable due to the inconsistency of different observers. The paper put forward the concept of critical conflict area and de- fines the situation when two or more ships occupy the same critical conflict area as ship conflict. Based on the traffic flow and ship behavior, this paper established a model to calculate the probability of ship conflict in intersection waterway. Be sides, some factors affecting the conflict probability were also analyzed. In the case of a lack of observational data, this method provides an algorithm for security studies of the intersection of the waters. Results showed that the model was in consistent with the actual situation. In the case of lack of data, the method provides an algorithm for security studies in intersection waterway.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期78-82,共5页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology
基金
交通西部建设科技项目(201132820190)
关键词
水上交通冲突
临界冲突直径
冲突概率
ship conflict
critical conflict diameter
conflict probability
